Renewed Middle East Conflict Drives Up Air Freight Shipments and Fuel Costs
- Zachary Brizuela
- Aug 3
- 8 min read
MANILA, 3 August 2026, renewed fighting in the Middle East is putting fresh pressure on global air cargo networks, raising the cost of moving urgent goods by plane and adding another source of uncertainty for companies that depend on fast international shipments.
Airlines and freight forwarders are reviewing routes that pass near conflict zones, energy traders are watching oil supply risks, and importers are facing higher transport quotes for time-sensitive goods. The impact is being felt across major trade lanes linking Asia, Europe, the Gulf, and North America, with spillover effects for Philippine businesses that rely on air cargo for electronics, medical supplies, spare parts, luxury goods, and perishables.
The clearest effect is cost. Longer flight paths burn more fuel. Higher jet fuel prices raise airline operating costs. Security restrictions, insurance charges, and sudden airspace changes can add more expense. Together, these pressures are pushing up air freight fuel costs at a time when many supply chains are still trying to avoid delays.
Airlines are rerouting flights around higher-risk airspace
Air cargo operators move quickly when conflict raises the risk of flying over a region. Even when airports remain open, airlines may avoid certain skies if missiles, drones, or military activity create uncertainty.
The Middle East is central to global aviation. It sits between Asia, Europe, and Africa, and many long-haul cargo routes cross or pass near the region. A change in one air corridor can force aircraft onto longer paths across Central Asia, the eastern Mediterranean, or parts of Africa.
That adds time. It also adds fuel burn.
For a cargo airline, even a small change in flight time matters. Wide-body freighters carry heavy loads and consume large amounts of jet fuel. If a route becomes longer, the airline may need to carry more fuel, reduce cargo weight, or schedule a technical stop. Any of those choices can reduce efficiency and raise the cost per shipment.
Passenger airlines are affected too. A large share of international air cargo moves in the belly of passenger aircraft, not only on dedicated freighters. When passenger flights are delayed, cancelled, or rerouted, that cargo space can shrink without much warning.
Freight forwarders said in recent industry updates that shippers are asking for more route visibility, especially for cargo moving between Europe and Asia. The concern is not only whether a shipment can move, but whether it can arrive on schedule.
For exporters of time-sensitive goods, a delay of one or two days can be costly. That risk is higher for goods such as:
Semiconductors and electronic components
Pharmaceuticals and medical devices
Aircraft and machinery parts
Fresh food and high-value perishables
E-commerce orders with promised delivery windows
In the Philippines, this matters because many export and import flows depend on predictable air links through regional hubs. Shipments often connect through airports in Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, the Gulf, or Europe before reaching final destinations.
Oil market anxiety is feeding into jet fuel prices
Conflict in the Middle East often affects aviation costs before physical oil supplies are disrupted. Traders price in risk when the region becomes unstable because it includes major oil producers, energy export routes, and critical shipping chokepoints.
Jet fuel is closely linked to crude oil prices. When crude rises, jet fuel normally follows. Airlines can hedge part of their fuel exposure, but many still feel the pressure from sudden price changes. Cargo customers may then see higher fuel surcharges or revised freight quotes.
The fuel issue is especially important for air cargo because fuel is one of the largest operating costs for airlines. A freighter flying a long-distance route has fewer ways to absorb higher costs, particularly when it is already flying around restricted airspace.
The effect can show up in several ways:
Higher freight rates for urgent cargo
Fuel surcharges added to existing contracts
Shorter validity periods for freight quotes
More frequent rate changes by carriers and forwarders
Reduced capacity on routes that become less profitable
Philippine importers may see this through changing landed costs. A shipment quoted one week may cost more the next if fuel surcharges rise or routing options narrow. For smaller businesses, that can make budgeting difficult, especially when goods are already paid for overseas.
Exporters face a different problem. Higher air freight costs can make Philippine goods less competitive in markets where buyers compare landed prices closely. This can affect high-value and time-sensitive products, including electronics, garments with tight selling windows, fresh food, and specialty items.
Regional hubs face more pressure to keep cargo moving
The Gulf’s major airports are important global cargo connectors. Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi, and other hubs link Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Americas. If airlines avoid certain air corridors or if schedule changes ripple through these hubs, cargo connections can become less predictable.
Asian hubs also feel the pressure. Cargo moving from Manila may connect through Hong Kong, Singapore, Taipei, Seoul, or Tokyo before heading to Europe or the Middle East. If aircraft arrive late from one region, onward cargo can miss connections.
The result is not always a visible airport disruption. Often, the problem is hidden in allocation decisions. Freight forwarders may receive less space than expected. Carriers may prioritise higher-paying cargo. Some shipments may be rolled to the next flight.
That risk is highest when cargo volumes rise at the same time that routing becomes less efficient.
Airlines also have to manage crew schedules, aircraft utilisation, and safety rules. A longer route can affect duty time limits and aircraft availability for the next scheduled flight. One delayed long-haul service can affect several flights after it.
For air cargo, conflict does not need to close an airport to raise costs. A longer route, a missed connection, or a tighter fuel market can be enough.
Fuel surcharges are becoming a key line item again
Many freight invoices include a base rate and separate surcharges. In calmer periods, shippers may focus mostly on the base freight rate. During energy shocks, the fuel surcharge can become the line item that changes fastest.
Fuel surcharges vary by airline, trade lane, contract type, and forwarder. Some are adjusted on a schedule. Others can change more often when the market moves sharply.
For shippers, this creates a challenge. A contract rate may not fully protect against rising costs if the fuel component floats. Spot market shipments can be even more exposed because prices may change before cargo is booked.
Businesses that ship by air are now paying closer attention to:
How long a quote remains valid
Whether fuel surcharges are fixed or adjustable
What routing the carrier plans to use
Whether cargo may be transhipped through a different hub
Whether insurance or security fees are included
For small and medium-sized businesses, clarity matters. A cheap quote may not be the best option if it carries a higher risk of delay or extra charges later. A slightly higher quote with confirmed routing and space may provide better cost control.
Philippine businesses watch costs on imports and exports
The Philippines is not at the centre of the conflict, but it is exposed through global trade. Air freight is used for goods where speed, value, or temperature control matters.
Electronics and components are among the most sensitive. Supply chains in this sector often depend on predictable timing between factories, assembly sites, and customers. If air capacity tightens or shipment costs rise, companies may need to hold more inventory or pay extra for priority space.
Medical and pharmaceutical shipments are another concern. Some products require temperature-controlled handling and fast transit. Delays can create compliance issues, not only commercial problems.
Fresh food exporters, including those shipping seafood, fruit, and specialty products, may also face pressure. These goods can lose value quickly if transit time stretches or cold chain handling becomes less predictable.
E-commerce sellers and importers may see the impact through higher delivery costs for cross-border orders. If logistics providers raise rates, sellers may have to absorb the cost, increase prices, or change delivery promises.
For consumers, the effect may appear gradually. Higher transport costs do not always translate into immediate retail price increases. Businesses may first adjust margins, delay shipments, combine orders, or switch transport modes. But if the conflict continues and fuel costs remain elevated, more of the increase can move through to final prices.
Freight forwarders are advising earlier bookings
Logistics providers are urging customers to plan earlier where possible. In a normal market, some air cargo can be booked close to departure. During periods of geopolitical risk, that flexibility narrows.
Earlier booking gives forwarders more choices. It also helps them secure space before sudden demand pushes rates higher.
Shippers are also reviewing alternative routes. Some may choose connections through East Asia rather than the Gulf. Others may split shipments across more than one carrier to reduce the risk of a single disruption.
There is no single best route for every shipment. The right choice depends on the origin, destination, cargo type, budget, and deadline. A medical shipment may justify premium air freight. A non-urgent retail shipment may wait for sea freight even if the voyage takes longer.
Businesses are also looking at inventory buffers. Holding extra stock ties up cash, but it can reduce the need for emergency air freight. That trade-off is back on the table as conflict risk grows.
The next pressure point is capacity
Fuel prices are the immediate concern, but capacity could become the bigger issue if the conflict widens or if more airspace restrictions appear.
Air cargo capacity depends on aircraft availability, passenger flight schedules, airport handling, and route access. If one of those weakens, rates can rise quickly.
Peak shipping periods can make the problem worse. The months before major holidays often bring heavier demand for consumer goods. If geopolitical disruption overlaps with a seasonal cargo rush, shippers may face higher rates and fewer options.
Weather can add another layer. Typhoons in East Asia, winter disruption in Europe, or congestion at major hubs can compound conflict-related delays. In logistics, the most difficult periods often come when several smaller problems hit at once.
Carriers will continue to adjust flight paths based on safety assessments and government notices. Civil aviation authorities can restrict airspace with little warning. Airlines may also choose more conservative routes even when airspace remains technically open.
What happens next will depend on security and oil markets
The near-term outlook depends on two linked questions. The first is whether the conflict spreads or remains contained. The second is whether oil and jet fuel prices keep rising.
If security risks ease, airlines can return to more efficient routes and fuel markets may settle. Freight rates would not necessarily fall at once, but pressure could ease as capacity becomes more predictable.
If the fighting widens, shippers should expect more volatility. Airlines may expand rerouting, fuel surcharges may rise, and cargo space on safer routes may become more expensive.
For now, logistics companies are likely to keep a cautious approach. Safety will take priority over speed. That means longer flight paths may remain in place even if they raise costs.
The practical lesson for businesses is clear. Air freight will still move, but it may move at a higher price and with less certainty. Companies that rely on urgent shipments should check routings, confirm surcharge terms, book earlier, and build more time into delivery plans where possible.
The renewed Middle East conflict is not only a regional security issue. It is now a transport cost issue, an energy cost issue, and a supply chain planning issue for companies far beyond the region, including those moving goods in and out of the Philippines.
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